Well-Rested or Battle-Tested? The Riddle of Oscar-Pacquiao

By Thomas Gerbasi (Dec 2, 2008) Photo © HBO-PPV

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Let’s get this out of the way at the start – Oscar De La Hoya is in the best shape of his life, he’s got the fire back, and he’s coming out to make a statement in his bout against Manny Pacquiao on December 6th.

Okay, now that the usual pre-fight bluster from ‘The Golden Boy’ has been covered, we can get down to business and look at this Saturday’s bout, the latest “Super Fight” involving this era’s biggest box office attraction.

But is it as super as the promoters of the event would have you believe? Sure, there have been 8,000 teleconferences, 9,000 press releases, and 10,000 words of hyperbole, but that just means that the PR staffs are doing their jobs. When it comes to that all-important buzz, there’s not that “butterflies in the stomach” feeling for this one.

Maybe it’s because it looks like De La Hoya is taking on a much smaller opponent in Pacquiao just to make another huge payday with the least amount of risk.

Maybe it’s because the best trash talk of the entire promotion has come from Freddie Roach (via PR ace Fred Sternburg).

Maybe it’s because De La Hoya hasn’t won a significant fight since he stopped Fernando Vargas in 2002.

Or maybe it’s because no matter what happens this weekend, the boxing world will remain the same. There are no championships at stake, no future bouts riding on the outcome of this one. Win or lose, De La Hoya will almost certainly make another cash grab – this one in the UK against Ricky Hatton next year. Win or lose, Pacquiao will still reside in the number one spot most have him in on the pound for pound list, and he will then go back down in weight to engage in meaningful fights once again.

So why bother? Why spend your hard-earned cash in a recession on what may turn out to be a blowout victory for the bigger, stronger De La Hoya?

For the Pac-Man.

Already a national icon in the Philippines, Pacquiao now has the opportunity to not only achieve some of that same popularity here in the States, but he can do so by overturning all the odds against him. It’s a position he has rarely been in over the last few years while battling the likes of Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Juan Manuel Marquez. In each of those fights, Pacquiao’s speed and explosiveness bought him a measure of respect that ensured at the very least that the fight would be competitive.

But now, he’s the sacrificial lamb in the eyes of most observers. Sure, he’ll get paid well, but it’s expected that when De La Hoya closes in and starts pounding him with his left hook, the Philippine hero will be earning every penny of his paycheck. Of course, Team De La Hoya has pulled out all the stops in trying to portray this as an even fight, down to the recruitment of Nacho Beristain and Angelo Dundee as the only strategic masterminds he could bring in to figure out the Rubik’s Cube of Pacquiao. De La Hoya is also in the best shape of his life, he’s got the fire back, and he’s looking to make a statement – oops, we covered this already. But beyond the soundbites and introspective 24/7 moments, you can’t help but look at De La Hoya as a guy who knows that a fighter whose first championship came at 112 pounds can’t possibly beat him.

But he can.

I was slow to get on the Pacquiao bandwagon, but as the years have gone on, he’s grown on me. Not only for his ability to send an electric jolt down his opponents’ spine with a left hand down the middle, but for his heart and his humble demeanor. He could do other things – and he has – but when it comes down to it, he’s a fighter. I don’t know if you can classify Oscar as that anymore.

Sure, De La Hoya’s got the skill, chin, and stones to stand in and be competitive with anybody, but since his last big win – over Vargas – in 2002, he’s only gone 4-3. The wins coming over Ricardo Mayorga, Steve Forbes, Yory Boy Campas, and Felix Sturm, with many believing that he shouldn’t have gotten the nod over Sturm in 2004. That’s seven fights in six years.

On the other side of the ring, Pacquiao has gone 13-1-1 over the last six years. His only loss was to Morales, a defeat he avenged twice; and the only draw came against Marquez, another blemish ultimately avenged. Also on Pacquiao’s hit list were Barrera (twice), Oscar Larios, Jorge Solis, and David Diaz.

Yes, size does matter and it may be a key factor in determining the final result on Saturday night, but if you had your choice, would you rather be battle-tested and smaller, or bigger and well-rested? If you’re battle-tested – like Pacquiao is – your muscle memory is tuned to a high level, your face has been hardened by the blows you have taken, and when the bell rings for round seven, you don’t sigh; you simply take a deep breath and get back to work.

De La Hoya doesn’t have any of that anymore. His face was bruised up pretty bad by the light-hitting Forbes in May, his late round stamina has been questionable for years, and hey, Roach said it himself that ‘The Golden Boy’ can’t pull the trigger like he used to, and it’s hard to disagree, especially since he couldn’t dent the chin of Forbes, couldn’t get any respect from Floyd Mayweather, Bernard Hopkins, Sturm, or Shane Mosley, and was only able to finish the hittable Mayorga, his only stoppage win in the last five years.

Add in Pacquiao’s relentless pressure and assumed edge in speed, and you’ve got an exciting fight with the potential for a major upset all of a sudden.

And if he does shock the world, Pacquiao may very well be boxing’s Obama, ringing in change for a sport in dire need of it. There will be no more ducking of legitimate fighters, no more business transactions masquerading as super fights. Boxing can get back to the business of matching the best against the best, and a new era can begin. And somewhere, in a little gym in the middle of nowhere, a young boy with a dream will pick up boxing gloves and say ‘Yes I can! Yes I can!’

Okay HBO, you’ve got my $54.95. Who would have thought that a few weeks of 24/7 and a stuffed email box would get me to buy a fight between a blown-up flyweight and a multi-millionaire who is 4-3 in his last seven bouts?

Hagler-Hearns or Ali-Frazier it isn’t. I guess boxing truly is a sickness.